If you hope to make any money at all from Asian Handicap Betting (AHB) today, the only way to approach it is as if you are at the roulette table. This is because, with the Bookmakers’ computerised systems being so much better nowadays, they have made the theoretical chances of a correct AHB call close to 50/50 in most cases...
The Bookies have eliminated the opportunity for a Draw call with AHB, so there are only 2 possible calls to make: a win, either for the Home Team or the Away Team. This, of course, has removed the possibility of the Draw as an alternative call for use as a “hedging” technique, which is why mitigation tactics are necessary.
The Odds on offer to you for AHB are not 1 for 1, as they are when betting on red or black on the roulette table, but slightly reduced (on average about 0.95 returned for a win, against every 1 laid out). The Odds you get from the Bookmaker are therefore very similar to those when you play on a roulette table having 2 zeros (the American system) instead of the 1-zeroed European table.
For me, the main problem with AHB is that there is no chance of being able to employ a proper “selection” method for the match choices, and so winning very much comes down simply to Lady Luck. The reality therefore is that if you use an unstructured staking method with AHB you will inevitably lose more than you win. However, so many people enjoy this type of betting today that I feel some sound advice on a staking strategy needs to be offered. But it has to be stressed that it isn’t an easy topic to deal with, so bear with me please!
With AHB, the only way I have found any chance of winning more than I lose is to apply the same type of betting/staking system as is best for roulette. My preferred system for roulette is the one known as the “1-3-2-6” Staking Plan. It is a “protected progressive” staking gambit that assumes, where the chances of getting the call right are near enough 50/50, that it would be possible to win four times in a row often enough to have you winning overall. If you don’t understand how this bet works, then you need to read my earlier article specifically dealing with this.
To apply the 1-3-2-6 Staking Plan to AHB is nowhere near as easy as it is for roulette (where many spins take place every hour over long stretches of time). AHB is generally available only for prime Saturday and Sunday matches, where the kick-off times all occur within a very short time frame each day. It’s true that all you need for a full winning cycle of a 1-3-2-6 bet is just 4 stages of betting, but if you have to restart the cycle a few times because you incurred losses you will need more betting stages to work with.
The following is how to apply the 1-3-2-6 Staking Plan for AHB purposes:
1. All started cycles of betting need to be completed over the course of a weekend. For your own peace of mind, don’t start a cycle you can’t complete until the following weekend!
2. To allow yourself the maximum number of stages for betting purposes, you need to identify a series of matches over the Saturday and Sunday plays where the starting times do not overlap and such as will give you time to place ALL your next bets after you have the results in.
3. What you must absolutely NOT do is split your bet in any stage across 2 or more matches! The betting in each stage of a cycle must be limited to just one match only. This comes down to pure mathematical probabilities: a standard AHB call has a 50% chance of coming good, but 2 AHB calls both coming good reduces the chances to 25%.
4. If you so wish then, you may find that you are able to select a sufficient number of matches to allow you to run a number of cycles all at the same time, near enough in parallel with each other.
5. Just as in roulette, to enable you to keep proper track of where you stand in any given cycle the overall stake would need to be based on a standardised value for your “Unit” (the number of Dollars per 1 Unit that forms the basis of your overall stake) at each and every stage of the cycle. Nothing stops you from increasing the value of your “Unit” from one cycle to the next, of course, although this should never be done as a “catch-up” plan.
The main thrust of this article is to let you know that there are many staking plans around, and most of them can be useful in the right betting situation (although the risks to your Base Bank may be substantially increased with some of them). However, when embarking on any betting with a roulette-type outcome - and AHB definitely falls into that category - beware of any staking plan that requires you to increase your stakes considerably if you lose.
With AHB in particular, what you must really pay close attention to is choosing a staking plan that will make you regular money on a consistent basis, and that will protect your Base Bank as much as possible. I believe that the 1-3-2-6 Staking Plan is one of the best systems for enabling you to achieve both those aims. Although it may never make you a fortune, using it properly could enable you to keep adding to your Base Bank instead of watching it rapidly shrink.
|About The Author
This article is written by Woz Salmon, a specialist in risk analysis and mitigation techniques, whose primary aim is to help the average football bettor significantly improve his/her chances of winning more money from the Bookies. Woz Salmon runs http://www.predictawin.com. Helping you bet to win!
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